Ladies and Gentlemen, we have arrived. Week 19, aka #WildCardWeekend. As a gambler you work all year to get this point. Reviewing past bet slips, crunching the data, listening to podcasts, doing make believe math in your head, and finally deciding where you're going to have your money riding. I have assumed some of my favorite bets for each game this weekend and wanted to provide them to our loyal fans who like money.
As is #WildCardWeekend tradition, the #Texans start us off in the 4:30pm Saturday slot. Here are my individual plays. As my former Co-Worker Jim used to say, take em, leave em, tweak em.
Joe Mixon anytime touchdown (-135):
This is a juicy-priced prop bet, but I like Texans running back Joe Mixon to find paydirt on Saturday. The veteran running back leads the Texans in touchdown scampers (11), with 10 coming in the red zone. Mixon’s versatility both on the ground and through the air makes this prop worth my while heading into the Wild Card opener. Los Angeles has allowed five rushing TDs and 13 via the air within 20 yards of the pylon. Mixon is the leading man as the Texans enter scoring distance, so Houston's RB1 should break his scoring slump.
Ladd McConkey anytime touchdown (+135)
Los Angeles Chargers wideout Ladd McConkey has had an incredible rookie season. The Chargers' rookie receiver built early chemistry with Justin Herbert this season, combining for 82 receptions and seven touchdowns. McConkey has 5+ receptions in each of his past eight, and he's also hauled in seven of his eight red zone targets this season, including a pair of touchdown receptions in Week 17 at New England. The Herbert-McConkey duo has gotten the Chargers this far, and I like his chances of scoring a touchdown against a Houston Texans secondary that allowed an average of two receiving TDs this season.
Quentin Johnston o42.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Johnston's posted at least five catches and 45 yards in four of his last five games, including a 13-catch, 186-yard explosion in Week 18, as the 6-foot-4 receiver has emerged as the team's primary deep threat down the stretch. Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh has noted the growing chemistry between the sophomore and QB Justin Herbert, which lines up with Johnston leading all L.A. receivers with a 31% target rate against zone coverage — which the Houston Texans deploy at a Top-10 rate in the league. The Texans defense has also allowed 21 pass catchers to top 45 yards over its last eight games.
CJ Stroud Under 231.5 passing yards (-115)
CJ Stroud was sacked 52 times this season, and that’s a big reason why I expect the Houston Texans quarterback to go below his passing total on Saturday. No other AFC quarterback was taken down more on pass plays this year, with the Texans having the eighth-worst sack rate allowed. Making matters worse for Stroud, his only reliable targets in the passing game will be Nico Collins and Joe Mixon. The absence of Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs will make things much easier for a Charger defense ranked second in opponent yards per completion and seventh in passing yards allowed per game.
Justin Herbert Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100)
Justin Herbert has thrown for 23 touchdowns on the season, and nine of those have come in the past four games. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in each of those contests, having done so in just four of his first 13 starts. And with J.K. Dobbins questionable for Saturday’s game, he may have to take to the air quite a bit. The Texans rank 27th on the season in opponent red zone touchdown rate and have conceded the third-most passing touchdowns in the league. Herbert has completed 21+ throws in five straight games and attempted 30+ in seven of his last eight. A similar volume here will see him connect on at least two scoring tosses.
Ladd McConkey 75+ receiving yards (-110)
When Herbert needs a big play, he turns to Ladd McConkey. McConkey has at least 83 receiving yards in each of his last three games and in six of his last seven. I think he’s a lock to get to 80 yet again, but we’ll stick to his alternate total of 75 or more. Houston’s secondary has struggled with high-volume, high-production receivers down the stretch. They allowed 75 receiving yards last week to Calvin Ridley, while Jacksonville saw both Brian Thomas Jr and Parker Washington eclipse that number as well against the Texans. Herbert has thrown 504 pass attempts this season, and 22.2% of those have gone the way of McConkey. He’s caught at least five passes in his last seven games, and I just can’t see this inconsistent Houston secondary finding a way to lock him down.
L.A. Chargers -3 (+100)
Los Angeles and Houston headed in opposite directions down the stretch, and Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has underwhelmed dating back to the Week 7 loss to the Green Bay Packers with a pedestrian 6.6 YPA and a 59.9 CMP%. On the flip side, the Chargers have stormed to an 8-3 finish while ranking 10th in EPA per play and allowing the eighth lowest, and Bolts QB Justin Herbert has aired it out for a solid 8.0 YPA and 66.2 CMP%. Additionally, I value Los Angeles covering the number in 13 of its last 18 games.
C.J. Stroud u34.5 passing attempts (-120)
Finishing with a disappointing TD/INT ratio of 20-12 and a passer rating of 87.0, the Houston Texans pivot has cashed the Over on 34.5 passing attempts in just five of 16 starts this season. Four of those five high-passing games took place in the first eight weeks of the season, as Stroud’s passing volume has severely dropped down the stretch. The Los Angeles Chargers defense ranks ninth in defensive DVOA and has been great against the pass, with only six teams allowing fewer rushing yards per game. With the Los Angeles offense featuring a run-heavy scheme that chews up the clock, Stroud will also be provided with less time to cash his passing attempts total.
u43.5 (-110)
The Texans enter the postseason as the worst offensive unit in the tournament, ranked 21st in EPA per play and 31st in success rate per snap. Houston’s attack has peaked at 23 points over the previous five games and red-zone woes are at the core of that punchless playbook, going 5 for 15 in the RZ in that span. The Chargers defense tightens up at the right time, owning the lowest touchdown rate allowed inside the red zone (45%) as well as the fifth lowest third down conversion percentage. Both offenses play a methodical pace, utilizing hurry-up tactics and the fifth and seventh lowest rate, and L.A. aims to control tempo with a playbook that can anchor itself in the rushing game. The Chargers are among the better teams in dominating time of possession with that snail’s pace and parking the opposing attack on the sideline.
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