Kentucky thanks for showing up yesterday! I actually took Oakland in one of my brackets, but not my main bracket, I totally knew that was going to be an upset and I am not lying. The first two days of the March Madness tournament are particularly special for gamblers for several reasons:
Sheer Volume of Games
Upsets and Cinderella Stories
Bracket Pools and Office Pools
Variety of Betting Options
Nonstop Action and Drama
Let's keep the good vibes going for Day 2 of the tournament, here are my picks that are scientifically proven to be winners.
Northwestern (+130)
Since Ty Berry’s injury, Ryan Langborg has taken on a bigger role for Northwestern. His efficiency has elevated the Wildcats’ offense by 3.5 points per 100 possessions while also helping the defense get set thanks to the made buckets. If NW had played like this all season, it may have earned a 6-seed. Looking at the season of work, the Wildcats were properly seeded, but giving some credence to a point guard who reached the Sweet Sixteen last year — scoring 18.7 ppg in doing so — suddenly reveals Northwestern as a team to consider.
Colgate First Half +8 (-103)
Now, there’s a massive gap in overall talent and coaching between these two teams, and that will show over 40 minutes. But as far as first halves go, Baylor has been slow out of the blocks – at least by its standards. The Bears own a first-half margin of just +2.8 on the season, which is a stark contrast to their second-half result of +6.3 in the final 20 minutes. Baylor has actually trailed at the halftime break in six of its last eight games (and those two leads were by only one point), getting outscored by an average tally of 37-30 in the 1H in that span. In fact, BU has covered the first-half spread only four times in its last 14 games. The Raiders give up only 30.5 points in the opening 20 minutes and present a tougher-than-expected matchup for BU’s
San Diego St. -7 (-108)
12-seeded UAB ranks behind three or four 13 seeds in advanced metrics. One cannot even argue it surged of late and earned this seeding. Since Feb. 15, UAB ranks No. 91 in barttorvik.com’s numbers, behind 15-seed South Dakota St. (No. 87), the College of Charleston (No. 56) and all three other 12 seeds. Projections suggest this should be closer to -9. The Aztecs will have the best player on the court, they will dictate a slow pace of the game and rely on their suffocating defense to force UAB to chuck from deep.
Western Kentucky +8.5 — first half (-108)
Western Kentucky can throw a few wrinkles at Marquette early in the halfcourt to avoid being overly reliant on scoring in transition. One of those places is in the post. Marquette has not been good there defensively this season, ranking near the bottom of the Big East in points per possession allowed on post-up sets. The Hilltoppers will see this as an opportunity between Babacar Faye and Rodney Howard. Those two players rank in the top 70% of scoring on post-up sets. There's a reasonable path for Western to get some regular, early, consistent offense here to stay close.
Stetson Team Total o59.5 (-104)
UConn played Quad 4 teams nine times, giving up 6.2 points per 100 possessions more than against all other foes, adjusted for opponents, per barttorvik.com. Six of those saw UConn’s opponent go over its team total, and the three Unders were by 5.5 points, half a point and 1.5 points. Five of the six team total Overs were by more than a bucket, clearing those totals by an average of 7 points. Lastly, Stetson’s offense is better than all nine of those occasions.
Clemson (+105)
This is an interesting line with No. 11-seed New Mexico favored against No. 6-seed Clemson. The Lobos caught on fire to win the Mountain West tourney but they might have used up all their juice. They went a middling 10-8 in conference play during the regular season and generally play far worse away from home since they don't have the advantage of playing at elevation. They also played a weak non-conference schedule and the only half-decent opponent they faced (St. Mary's) beat them by 14. Clemson has a Top-30 offense and an experienced squad with a good backcourt in Chase Hunter and Joseph Girard plus a skilled big man in P.J. Hall.
Yale vs Auburn u140.5 (-108)
Yale’s only hope will be to replicate three of its last four NCAA Tournament games: Slow things down, fitting for one of the slowest teams in the country. Reducing the number of possessions to minimize the effect of a talent gap has led to three Unders in James Jones’s four March Madness games as Yale's head coach. Cutting this game from 67 possessions to 64 would be enough to make the talent gap less noticeable while also dooming the total.
Texas A&M team total u73.5 (-120)
Texas A&M made a run in the SEC tourney because of Wade Taylor. He scored 30 in both games in Nashville, but it will be much more difficult against a team that will pack the paint like Nebraska. The Cornhuskers should be able to replicate some of the things Auburn did to the Aggies this season, and that's when Taylor was held to just eight points. Even if they come out on top, it won't be because they score a ton.
Purdue -26 (-110)
This is a massive spread but the Tigers were curb-stomped by good teams they faced during the non-conference part of their schedule. They lost by 32 points to Colorado, 30 points to Dayton, 39 points to Florida, and a whopping 55 points to Iowa State. The Boilermakers have destroyed smaller-school teams beating Morehead State, Texas Southern, Jacksonville and Eastern Kentucky by 27+ points while demolishing SoCon champ Samford by 53. In addition, this game is taking place at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis which is just an hour away from West Lafayette so they should have plenty of crowd support. Most importantly Purdue should be extremely motivated after losing in the first round as a 23.5-point fave last year. Expect them to come in angry and locked in, and I don't think they'll take their foot off the pedal until the final whistle.
Alabama -9.5 (-110)
The Alabama Crimson Tide won't make it far in March with their shaky defense but they should cruise to an easy victory in Round 1. The Charleston Cougars are even worse on defense, ranking just 176th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they push the pace, so they'll play right into the hands of Alabama's up-tempo style. The Cougars are solid on offense but with just three players averaging double-digits in points and their leading scorer putting up just 12.8 ppg, they don't have the firepower to keep up with a Bama attack that leads the country with 90.8 ppg.
James Madison +5.5 (-105)
Wisconsin plays at a sluggish pace, which is never good for winning with a margin. The Badgers played well during the Big Ten tourney but had lost eight of their final 11 games to end the regular season and that inconsistency puts them on upset watch. Especially against a JMU squad that ran through the Sun Belt conference and has a 31-3 record. The Dukes have been strong on both sides of the floor, ranking 12th in the country in defensive efficiency and 20th in the offensive. Often, when you see matchups between teams from smaller conferences and marquee Power-Six programs, there is a disparity in terms of athleticism and size. That isn't the case here with Wisconsin lacking high-end athletes and JMU having the length and physicality to compete.