Michigan vs. Washington
Game: College Football Playoff National Championship
Date: Monday, Jan. 8 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: NRG Stadium -- Houston
Spread: Michigan -4.5 | Moneyline: Michigan -197, Washington +163 | O/U: 56.5
Washington +4.5 (-105):
If Washington can keep Michael Penix Jr. clean, and if they can force J.J. McCarthy and the Michigan special teams into a mistake or two, the Huskies will have an excellent chance to win this game outright. With that being the case, I’m taking the points with Penix and the Pups, who have proven time and again that they perform their best as underdogs. And if they do pull off the win, what a swan song it will be for the Pac-12.
Michael Penix Jr. u0.5 interceptions (+175):
You have to respect this Michigan defense, so, instead of taking Penix to go Over 291.5 passing yards at -115, let’s bet on his O-line to keep him clean, allowing him to make good decisions with the football. This means we’re taking the Under 0.5 interceptions thrown from Penix at a much nicer +175. Penix has thrown just nine picks all season and put up a zero in the interception column six times. If those Huskies linemen can consistently give Penix time to work in the pocket, he’ll stay mistake-free in this National Championship Game.
Washington first drive — Touchdown (+190):
Betting on Washington to score on its first drive is simply a bet on its offense in general, given it knows an early lead will put the Wolverines in trouble. Michigan has not faced a passing offense like this one this year; there may not be another one in the country, though that praise risks giving DeBoer and star quarterback Michael Penix Jr. too much credit. When it comes to the numbers, we may not even understand how good Washington is. Penix appeared injured or slowed in some manner through the season’s second half, only returning to his best look in the Sugar Bowl after a month off.
First Michigan TD scorer — Blake Corum (+160):
The odds on a prop bet of Blake Corum scoring all of Michigan’s touchdowns would be high, but that thought alone would be one worth chasing. That prop does not exist, so let’s instead rely on Corum out of the gates. Of Michigan’s 14 offensive touchdowns in its last five games, 10 of them came with the ball in Corum’s hands. The 5-foot-8 ball carrier has become the engine of the offense, even if it is directed by an increasingly impressive quarterback in J.J. McCarthy. Washington’s defense is weakest against the rush. To be fair, that is in part because opposing offenses have so needed to throw the ball to keep up with Penix and the Huskies, they only rush when they have an edge. Yet, beyond those game-state tendencies, opponents enjoyed successful rushes on 48.7 percent of their attempts against Washington, putting the Huskies rush defense in the bottom 10 in the country.
Blake Corum 2+ touchdowns (+135):
Blake Corum has found the end zone at least twice in each of his last six games, the crux of Michigan’s schedule. Anyone doing that at any point in the season would be impressive, but to do so twice against top-10 defenses like Penn State’s, Ohio State’s, Iowa’s, and Alabama’s stands out. If wanting to be critical, lower those to top-15 defenses, but all four rank in the top 10 in SP+’s defensive rankings and the top 15 of opponent-adjusted expected points added per defensive snap, per cfb-graphs.com. In the four games this season in which he did not score twice, he scored once in each and Michigan won each of those games by at least 27 points and by an average of 36.5 points. Corum could and did rest, getting just 13.75 touches per game in those four. In the Wolverines’ 10 other games this year, Corum has averaged 19.8 touches.
Michigan TT Over 3.5 touchdowns (-150):
Michigan has averaged 26.2 points in its last five games, all against defenses better than Washington’s, and that is not counting the overtime touchdown against Alabama in the Rose Bowl. In the last three games, and let’s realize those were against Ohio State, Iowa, and Alabama, the Wolverines have scored touchdowns on nine of their 16 quality drives, managing scoring opportunities on half of their possessions. Those three defenses rank No. 2, No. 9, and No. 17 in the frequency of allowing scoring opportunities, respectively, and No. 24, No. 2, and No. 39 in points allowed on those chances, per cfb-graphs.com. To get into the end zone on 56 percent of those quality drives was a testament to Michigan’s offense, as was managing scoring opportunities on half of those possessions.
