2026 NFL Division Predictions: My Picks for Every Division Before the Season Begins

The NFL season is finally here, which means it is time to make predictions that will probably look completely ridiculous by November.

That is part of the fun.

Every offseason, we spend months convincing ourselves that we know which teams improved, which teams are overrated, which quarterbacks are ready to make a jump and which coaches are about to get fired. Then Week 1 arrives and within three hours some team we had winning 12 games is losing at home to a team everyone thought was tanking.

Still, I feel pretty strongly about several divisions heading into this season.

Some of these picks are safer than others. Buffalo winning the AFC East is not exactly going out on a limb. Picking Dallas to win the NFC East definitely is. But if I am going to do a preseason prediction blog, I would rather actually have opinions than copy whatever the betting favorites say.

So these are my projected division standings heading into the 2026 season.

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys 11-6

My pick to win the NFC East is Dallas.

I understand that Philadelphia is probably the safer selection. The Eagles still have one of the better rosters in football and are actually the betting favorite in the division. Dallas, meanwhile, has missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons and finished only 7-9-1 last year. ESPN's preseason projection gives the Cowboys roughly a one-in-three chance of winning the division, so this is definitely not the consensus pick.

But I like what Dallas has done.

The biggest issue with the Cowboys last season was not Dak Prescott or whether the offense could move the ball. It was a defense that consistently put the offense in terrible situations. Dallas spent the offseason addressing that side of the football with veterans like Quinnen Williams, Kenny Clark and Jalen Thompson while also continuing to build around younger players. There has also been a noticeable emphasis under Brian Schottenheimer on accountability and leadership rather than simply collecting talent.

If Dak stays healthy, I trust this offense. CeeDee Lamb is still one of the best receivers in football, and Dallas has enough firepower to score with almost anyone. The Cowboys do not need to suddenly become the 2000 Ravens defensively. If the defense can simply become average instead of actively losing games, this feels like a 10- or 11-win roster.

Philadelphia is going to make this extremely close. Jalen Hurts is learning another offensive system under new coordinator Sean Mannion, while DeVonta Smith takes over an even larger role following the A.J. Brown trade. Saquon Barkley is still there, the defense should remain excellent under Vic Fangio and Philadelphia has more than enough talent to win this division.

My concern is that Dallas feels like the team with slightly more urgency. The Cowboys have spent two years watching their window start to close. Philadelphia has been dealing with offensive transition and some internal changes. I think Dallas steals this thing by one game.

I have the division finishing Dallas 11-6, Philadelphia 10-7, New York Giants 7-10 and Washington 6-11. The Giants should be more competitive under John Harbaugh and second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart, but this still feels like a developmental season rather than a playoff season. Washington should be improved in spots, but I do not see enough around Jayden Daniels to keep pace with Dallas and Philadelphia for 17 games.

AFC East: Buffalo Bills 12-5

Buffalo is the easiest division winner for me.

The Patriots just went to the Super Bowl, so I completely understand why some people will pick New England. But I am still taking Josh Allen until somebody actually proves they can take this division away from him consistently.

Buffalo's biggest change is at head coach. Joe Brady was promoted after Sean McDermott's departure, and that creates some uncertainty, but Brady already understands exactly what he has in Allen. His job is not to reinvent Buffalo football. His job is to maximize one of the best quarterbacks alive and finally get this team over the postseason hump.

That last part matters.

Buffalo has been good enough to win a championship for several years. The problem has never really been getting to January. The problem has been what happens once they arrive there.

New England is a legitimate threat after going 14-3 and reaching the Super Bowl last season. They added A.J. Brown to give Drake Maye a true No. 1 receiver, which fixes one of the biggest weaknesses we saw against Seattle. But the Patriots also benefited from an unusually favorable schedule last season, and this year's slate is considerably harder. NFL.com's preseason panel overwhelmingly leaned Buffalo in the division for exactly that reason.

I think New England is still a playoff team. I just think Buffalo is slightly better over 17 games.

I have Buffalo 12-5, New England 11-6, Miami 6-11 and the Jets 5-12. Miami and New York both feel like teams caught between rebuilding and trying to remain competitive. Neither has enough certainty at quarterback or enough roster depth for me to put them anywhere close to the top two.

NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-7

This might be the ugliest division race in football.

I am taking Tampa Bay because I trust Baker Mayfield more than any other quarterback situation in the NFC South.

That is really where the pick starts.

The Buccaneers missed the playoffs last season for the first time in five years and lost Mike Evans to San Francisco, which is a massive change. Evans has been one of the most reliable receivers in NFL history and you do not simply replace that production. But Tampa still has Emeka Egbuka, Cade Otton and enough talent around Mayfield to remain functional offensively.

The Bucs also tried to strengthen the defense, adding A'Shawn Robinson and Alex Anzalone while drafting Rueben Bain. Todd Bowles has always been at his best when his defensive front can create pressure without requiring constant blitzing, and I think Tampa has enough talent to improve there.

Atlanta is the biggest challenger, but Michael Penix Jr.'s health continues to make me nervous. The Falcons are already leaning on Tua Tagovailoa because Penix is not fully ready, and that is not exactly the stability I want when picking a division winner. Carolina should continue improving with Bryce Young, but I am not ready to trust them for 10 wins. New Orleans is starting another year with plenty of questions of its own.

I have Tampa Bay 10-7, Carolina 8-9, Atlanta 7-10 and New Orleans 6-11.

I do not think Tampa runs away with anything. This could be one of those divisions where everyone is 5-5 in November and nobody has any clue who actually wants to win it.

But if I need one quarterback to keep things steady over the course of the season, I am taking Baker.

AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars 11-6

Jacksonville is my pick to repeat in the AFC South.

The Jaguars went 13-4 last season and won the division in Liam Coen's first year, so this is not exactly some wild sleeper prediction. The difference this year is that nobody is going to overlook them.

Trevor Lawrence does not need to become Patrick Mahomes. He just needs to continue playing efficient football inside Coen's offense.

The most fascinating player on this entire roster is Travis Hunter. A healthy Hunter gives Jacksonville one of the most unique chess pieces in football because of his ability to contribute on both sides of the ball. Even if the Jaguars eventually reduce his two-way workload, he is a difference-maker regardless of where they line him up.

Houston is the team that scares me.

The Texans still have a defense capable of carrying them deep into the season, especially after bringing Jadeveon Clowney back into the building. The question remains whether C.J. Stroud and the offensive line can rediscover the explosive offense that made Houston look like the next great young AFC team a few years ago.

I am betting on Jacksonville's continuity.

I have Jacksonville 11-6, Houston 10-7, Indianapolis 7-10 and Tennessee 6-11.

Houston absolutely has Wild Card potential. Indianapolis feels stuck in the middle again.

Tennessee should be tougher under Robert Saleh, but I still think this is more rebuild than playoff push.

NFC North: Detroit Lions 12-5

This might be my favorite division prediction.

Detroit finished last in the NFC North last year at 9-8.

I have them going from worst to first.

The Lions were disappointing in 2025, but when you look deeper, the collapse makes more sense. Their defense got crushed by injuries, their offensive line declined and the transition away from Ben Johnson was messier than expected. Despite all of that, Detroit still produced a top-five offense and finished with a positive point differential.

This team did not suddenly become bad.

Jared Goff is still surrounded by Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs and one of the better collections of offensive skill talent in football. Dan Campbell remains one of the best culture-setting coaches in the league, and Detroit now gets the benefit of a last-place schedule that is projected to be among the easiest in the NFL.

That is the part people should not overlook.

While Chicago, Green Bay and Minnesota deal with tougher positional matchups created by last year's standings, Detroit gets games against teams like Arizona, Tennessee and the Giants.

That can easily be the difference between 10-7 and 12-5.

Chicago is obviously dangerous. Caleb Williams took a major step under Ben Johnson last season, and the Bears won 11 games. But repeating in this division is extremely difficult. Green Bay still has Jordan Love and plenty of offensive talent, although the roster lost several pieces after the Micah Parsons acquisition became expensive. Minnesota added Kyler Murray, which immediately raises its quarterback ceiling, but there are still offensive-

line concerns.

I have Detroit 12-5, Chicago 10-7, Green Bay 9-8 and Minnesota 7-10.

The NFC North remains one of the hardest divisions in football.

I just think Detroit gets healthier, benefits from the schedule and reminds everybody why this roster looked like a Super Bowl contender two years ago.

AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals 11-6

This is probably my most aggressive AFC pick.

Baltimore is the safer answer.

But I am taking Cincinnati.

My reasoning is simple: Joe Burrow.

When Burrow is healthy, I believe Cincinnati can beat anybody in football. The Bengals have

spent several seasons having their championship window derailed by injuries, poor starts and a defense that could not consistently hold up its end of the bargain.

At some point, I think that flips back.

Baltimore is undergoing major change after John Harbaugh's departure, with Jesse Minter taking over as head coach. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry still make the Ravens incredibly dangerous, and Baltimore absolutely could win 12 games. But changing coaches after that long creates an adjustment period that Cincinnati does not have to deal with. The Bengals are the only AFC North team returning their head coach from last season.

Pittsburgh is fascinating because Aaron Rodgers is somehow back for another season and reunited with Mike McCarthy. I am not dismissing them completely. If Rodgers has one more competent season left in his body and Pittsburgh's defense stays healthy, they could be annoying all year.

Then there are the Browns.

As a Browns fan, I would love to convince myself this is finally the year the quarterback situation stops being insane.

I'm not doing that.

Deshaun Watson is entering the season as the starter, Shedeur Sanders is behind him and Dillon Gabriel is on injured reserve. Cleveland's defense should keep them in games, but until someone proves otherwise, I am not predicting this offense to consistently score enough points against Cincinnati and Baltimore.

I have Cincinnati 11-6, Baltimore 10-7, Pittsburgh 8-9 and Cleveland 6-11.

The Bengals' ceiling ultimately comes down to whether Burrow is upright in December.

If he is, I want that ticket.

NFC West: Los Angeles Rams 13-4

This is the strongest opinion I have in the NFC.

The Rams are winning the NFC West.

Seattle is the defending Super Bowl champion.

I don't care.

Los Angeles spent the offseason behaving like a team that knows Matthew Stafford's championship window is closing and has absolutely no interest in wasting it.

They traded for Myles Garrett.

They acquired Trent McDuffie.

They added Jaylen Watson.

And then Aaron Donald looked at all of this and apparently decided retirement was boring.

Donald is back.

So now offenses have to figure out how to block Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett on the same defensive front.

There really is no correct answer.

Garrett is coming off a 23-sack season and Defensive Player of the Year award. Donald is one of the greatest defensive players to ever live. Byron Young, Kobie Turner and Braden

Fiske are still there too.

That defensive front is disgusting.

The reason I am willing to go all the way to 13 wins is that the offense is not some rebuilding unit either.

Stafford is coming off an MVP season in which he threw 52 touchdowns including the playoffs. Puka Nacua remains one of the league's best receivers, and Sean McVay still knows how to generate offense as well as almost anybody.

The obvious concern is Stafford's age and health.

He will turn 39 during Super Bowl week.

If Stafford misses six games, none of these predictions matter.

But if he stays healthy?

I think the Rams might be the best team in football.

Seattle will not disappear. The Seahawks return most of the roster that just won the Super Bowl, and Mike Macdonald's defense is legitimate. The loss of Kenneth Walker III hurts, but this is still a championship-level team. San Francisco remains dangerous if it can finally stop having half its roster injured by October. Arizona looks like it is still several pieces away.

I have Los Angeles Rams 13-4, Seattle 11-6, San Francisco 9-8 and Arizona 4-13.

I could easily see Seattle winning 12 games and getting a Wild Card.

I just think the Rams went nuclear this offseason.

AFC West: Denver Broncos 12-5

Denver is my AFC West winner.

And I know exactly what everyone is going to say.

Patrick Mahomes. Yes. I am aware.

Picking against Mahomes in the AFC West has been one of the stupidest things anyone could do for basically the last decade.

This year feels different.

Kansas City is entering the season with Mahomes coming back from ACL and LCL tears suffered last December. Andy Reid says Mahomes is likely to start the opener against Denver, but he has not played a preseason snap and Kansas City is also dealing with uncertainty along the offensive line.

That does not mean Mahomes suddenly forgot how to play quarterback.

It means Denver has an opening.

The Broncos went 14-3 last season, have one of the best defenses in football and added Jaylen Waddle to give Bo Nix another legitimate weapon. Sean Payton has built a roster that is ready to win now.

Nix is the key.

If he takes another step, Denver has everything else. The defense. The offensive line. The coaching. The weapons. The home-field advantage.

Kansas City remains Kansas City, so I am not predicting some collapse. I think Mahomes gradually looks more like himself as the season progresses and the Chiefs become a terrifying team nobody wants to draw in January.

The Chargers are also dangerous because Justin Herbert is good enough to keep them in the Wild Card race by himself. The AFC West might actually be the strongest division in the conference from top to bottom. NFL.com has Denver, Kansas City and Los Angeles all entering the year with legitimate Super Bowl expectations.

Las Vegas is the one team I cannot buy yet. Kirk Cousins will open the season ahead of No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza, which tells you this is still a transitional year.

I have Denver 12-5, Kansas City 10-7, Los Angeles Chargers 9-8 and Las Vegas 5-12.

If Mahomes comes back looking 100 percent immediately, I reserve the right to pretend this paragraph never existed.

But entering the season, Denver is the more complete team.

How I See the Conferences Shaking Out

When I put everything together, the NFC feels stronger at the very top.

My division winners are Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay and the Rams. Behind them, Philadelphia and Seattle are my strongest Wild Card teams, with Chicago, Green Bay and San Francisco fighting for the remaining spots.

The Rams are my best team in the NFC.

Dallas is my gamble.

Detroit is my rebound pick.

Tampa Bay is the team I trust to survive the weakest division.

The AFC is more complicated.

I have Buffalo, Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Denver winning their divisions, but New England, Baltimore, Houston and Kansas City all feel completely capable of winning 10 or more games.

Buffalo has the best quarterback situation.

Denver might have the most complete roster.

Cincinnati has the most dangerous healthy quarterback nobody seems to be talking about enough.

Jacksonville gives me the most confidence in the AFC South.

And then Mahomes sits there like the final boss waiting for everyone to forget about him.

Final Predicted Standings

My NFC East finishes Dallas 11-6, Philadelphia 10-7, New York 7-10 and Washington 6-11.

My NFC North finishes Detroit 12-5, Chicago 10-7, Green Bay 9-8 and Minnesota 7-10.

My NFC South finishes Tampa Bay 10-7, Carolina 8-9, Atlanta 7-10 and New Orleans 6-11.

My NFC West finishes the Rams 13-4, Seattle 11-6, San Francisco 9-8 and Arizona 4-13.

In the AFC East, I have Buffalo 12-5, New England 11-6, Miami 6-11 and the Jets 5-12.

In the AFC North, Cincinnati finishes 11-6, Baltimore 10-7, Pittsburgh 8-9 and Cleveland 6-11.

In the AFC South, Jacksonville finishes 11-6, Houston 10-7, Indianapolis 7-10 and Tennessee

6-11.

And in the AFC West, Denver goes 12-5, Kansas City 10-7, the Chargers 9-8 and Las Vegas 5-12.

Will all of that happen?

Absolutely not.